24 Nov

Damian Lillard’s game-winning layup vs. Rockets doesn’t mask the Bucks’ massive flaws

The Milwaukee Bucks were bailed out by several plays that went their way and one egregiously missed call down the stretch on Monday, and it was Damian Lillard’s layup with 3.9 seconds remaining that gave them a 101-100 skin-of-their-teeth victory over the Houston Rockets.

Before we get to the breaks of the last few minutes, here is Lillard’s winner.

Damian Lillard wins it for the Bucks in the dying seconds of the game!#NBA pic.twitter.com/qOnstwTk4L

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) November 19, 2024
Look, it was a nice play by Lillard. Never mind that the possession before he took a terrible shot, a damn-near falling out of bounds contested step-back 3 six seconds into the shot clock with the Bucks down one and in position to set up a 2-for-1 scenario. The guy won the game for his team. Give him credit.

But if you’re just going off the highlights, you’re blowing smoke if you think the Bucks should’ve won that game. There isn’t a single sign that this is a good basketball team, let alone a contender. No team relying this heavily on a 36-year-old Brook Lopez is in good condition.

Think about this: The Bucks needed Lopez to go for 27 points, 10 rebounds, five 3-pointers, four blocks and three steals, a line no player in NBA history has ever put up at at 36 or older, to barely squeak out a victory over a Rockets team that shot 28% from 3 and 40% overall.

Less than a week ago, the Bucks again needed 29 points, eight rebounds, five 3-pointers, five blocks and three steals from Lopez to beat the Pistons. In overtime. As Joel Embiid can barely be bothered to get on the court, old-man Lopez has played 147 minutes over the last four games. That’s what it has taken for Milwaukee to beat the Pistons, Raptors and now the Rockets on a last-second shot.

Hell, the Bucks shouldn’t even have had the ball on the possession that Lillard hit the game-winner in the first place. Giannis Antetokounmpo peeled back after getting beat by Fred VanVleet to make a great block on a Alperen Sengun’s weak push shot that was begging to be batted away, but when Lopez came down with the loose ball and shoveled it back to Antetokounmpo, he was very clearly out of bounds.

Picks up FVV on the switch, sticks with him on the drive all the way, then peels off on the pass and gets up to swat Sengun’s shot. Monster play, saved the game and gave Dame a chance to win it. pic.twitter.com/upZAJiKZLW

— Dan Devine (@YourManDevine) November 19, 2024
That should have been Houston’s ball with a one-point lead, a fresh shot clock and under 20 seconds to play. Milwaukee would’ve been forced to start the foul game. The game was likely over right there.

Giannis was out of bounds on the play, leading to Damian Lillard’s game-winning bucket for the Bucks.

Out of bounds or good no-call? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/iYcKaaZC0B

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) November 19, 2024
Bucks fans will tell you this is some sort of basketball karma for the phantom call (which, to be fair, the refs admitted they missed) that sent LaMelo Ball to the free-throw line with seven seconds to play on Saturday, where he sank both and in the process the Bucks, who could only muster an isolation 18-foot pull-up from Antetokounmpo on their final possession.

Here’s the deal: When you’re whining about a bad call because you’re that desperate to beat the Hornets by one point, you have much bigger problems than the refs. Doc Rivers loves identifying his scapegoats, but this is a reach. These calls even out. It’s perfectly fitting that after Rivers was fined $25K for painting a boo-hoo picture of his Bucks constantly getting the raw end of the whistle, it was, in fact, a blown call that saved them two nights later.

It wasn’t the only stroke of luck that saved them. A few possessions earlier, Sengun was on a direct line to the rim and instead of going up with the shot, he decided to kick it out to Dillon Brooks for a 3-pointer with no Bucks defender within a country mile of him. He missed.

If Sengun takes the layup, or at least draws a foul and knocks down the free throws, the Rockets go up six. If Brooks makes the warm-up 3, they go up seven. With 90 seconds to play, the game likely would’ve been over right there as well. Instead, Milwaukee’s A.J. Green cashed a pull-up 28-footer on the other end to cut the lead to one.

Even after Lillard’s layup, the Rockets had the ball on a side-out for one last shot and absolutely blew what should’ve been a point-blank game-winning layup for Sengun. Watch Antetokounmpo, either because he and Andre Jackson Jr. miscommunicated in the worst way at the worst time or because Antetokounmpo simply made an error in judgment, chase Jalen Green away from the basket as Sengun pops into the great wide open.

If VanVleet completes this simple pass, the little bit of pressure on the inbounds pass notwithstanding, the game is once again over for the Bucks.

Rockets with a great counter to the normal “Cross Elevator” to open up the slip for Sengun. Had it perfectly, pass was just off target. pic.twitter.com/sT4tsV7CDD

— Coach Gibson Pyper (@HalfCourtHoops) November 19, 2024
At this point, the Bucks will take a win any way they can get it, especially against a quality Houston team. But they didn’t “hold” Houston to 100 points. The Rockets just can’t shoot. They barely make 32% of their threes, the third-worst mark in the league, and they shot even worse than that on Monday.

If you want to convince yourself this was because of Milwaukee’s defense around the arc, you go right ahead. But the truth is pretty plain to see. The Bucks are not a good team. They’re 5-9 and could, and perhaps should, be 4-10.

Maybe I’m wrong, but I’m thinking that 36-year-old Lopez playing like Victor Wembanyama on a good night, a blatantly blown call by the refs, a blatantly blown game-winning layup by the opponent, and a Dame-time game winner on a possession the Bucks never should’ve had after he went 0-for-6 from 3 in the game, isn’t exactly a replicable blueprint.

Game winners are cool, and nobody has more of go-ahead shots in the clutch than Lillard since he entered the league in 2012. But even that kind of excitement to close a game can’t mask the stink that’s coming off this Bucks team.

24 Nov

Warriors nearly pull off wild comeback vs. Clippers in final minutes, showing team still has never-say-die DNA

Back in their heyday, the Golden State Warriors were never out of a game. They seemingly dug 20-point holes on purpose just for the fun of shooting their way out of them. They’re not the same team anymore, but as long as you have Stephen Curry, the threat of pulling off the impossible will live in your team DNA.

Such was the case on Monday night against the Clippers, when the Warriors stormed back from 10 down in the final two-and-a-half minutes to put themselves in position to tie the game on a wide-open Gary Payton II 3-pointer after an absolutely wild closing sequence.

CLIPPERS OUTLAST WARRIORS ON FINAL POSSESSION 😳

WHAT AN ENDING. pic.twitter.com/T55HT0d0aI

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 19, 2024
As you saw, the Warriors had two great looks at the tying 3-pointer. Well, Curry’s wasn’t a great look by any kind of normal standard, but any Curry shot has a pretty good chance of going in and it was about a half of an inch long. Payton’s shot, courtesy of the Clippers all understandably scrambling to Curry, was a warm-up 3.

It didn’t go, and that stinks for Payton, who gave the Warriors the chance they needed in the first place by picking Norman Powell’s dribble. But Payton isn’t a particularly good 3-point shooter, though he’s surely a capable one, and the Clippers made the right call by swarming to Curry at the expense of an open look for Payton, or anyone else for that matter.

Let’s be clear: the Warriors didn’t deserve to win this game. The Clippers outplayed them all night. But the better team on a given night doesn’t alway win. Again, the Warriors used to beat teams with a couple five-minute runs all the time. And that’s a powerful weapon to have in your holster, to never be out of a game.

This team still has that feel of being able to pull off the impossible. Curry gives them the firepower, but the defense is equally important. You don’t make crazy runs by trading baskets. You have to get the stops to make headway, and this team can do that. It wasn’t enough on Monday, but it’s a trait that will serve them well throughout the rest of the season.

24 Nov

2024 NBA Cup picks, November 19 best bets by proven model

The Brooklyn Nets host the Charlotte Hornets in a 2024 NBA Cup game as a part of the 2024 NBA in-season tournament on Tuesday. Brooklyn is 5-9 overall and 3-3 at home, while Charlotte is 5-8 overall and 1-5 on the road. Both the Nets and Hornets are 0-1 in East Group A play in the 2024 NBA in-season tournament. The Nets lost to the Knicks, 124-122, on Friday and the Hornets fell to the Magic, 114-89, on Tuesday in each team’s first 2024 NBA Cup contest.

Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y. The Nets are favored by 3 points in the latest Hornets vs. Nets odds, according to the SportsLine consensus. The over/under is 221 points. Before entering any Nets vs. Hornets picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 5 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 109-74 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning more than $3,000. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Nets vs. Hornets and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Hornets vs. Nets:

Nets vs. Hornets spread: Nets -3
Nets vs. Hornets over/under: 221 points
Nets vs. Hornets money line: Nets -153, Hornets: +128
CHA: The Hornets are 4-2 ATS over their last six games
BRK: The Nets are 4-2 ATS at home this season
Nets vs. Hornets picks: See picks at SportsLine
Nets vs. Hornets streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Hornets can cover
The Hornets are coming off a 128-114 loss to the Cavaliers on Sunday, but they suffered the same result as the first 15 teams who have walked off the court against Cleveland did as the Cavaliers are chasing history with their 15-0 start to the season. The night before, Charlotte defeated the Bucks, 115-114, despite being 4-point underdogs. The Hornets are 4-0 ATS in games where they are underdogs by four points or fewer this season.

LaMelo Ball is reminding the league why he’s one of the game’s next biggest stars with his recent play. The No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft is fifth in the league in scoring at 29.7 points per game. He’s scored more than 30 points in four of his last five contests as after back-to-back injury-plagued seasons where he played on 58 of 164 contests (35.8%), Ball is healthy and dominant, which could create problems for Brooklyn. See which team to pick here.

Why the Nets can cover
The Nets have only been favored in three of 14 games this season and Brooklyn is 2-1 in those contests while covering the spread in both victories. Brooklyn enters on a three-game losing streak, but two of those losses came against a strong Knicks team with the third coming against the reigning champion Boston Celtics. Brooklyn nearly upset the Knicks as 8.5-point underdogs in its first game of the 2024 NBA in-season tournament in a 124-22 loss on Friday.

Brooklyn outscored the Knicks, 40-24, in the fourth quarter on Friday. Cameron Thomas had a season-high 43 points on 16 of 22 shooting (72.7%), including 7 of `10 on 3-pointers. Thomas is 15th in the league in scoring at 24.6 ppg. The Nets aren’t a home favorite often, but they went 10-6 ATS when the oddsmakers expected them to win in Brooklyn last season and they’ve split their first two ATS at home this year. See which team to pick here.

How to make Nets vs. Hornets picks
The model has simulated Hornets vs. Nets 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 218 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.